Satellite-derived rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Bogowonto Catchment,Central Java,Indonesia     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Satellite rainfall products for landslide early warning prediction have been spotlighted by several researchers, in the last couple of decades. This study investigates the use of TRMM and ERA-Interim data, for the determination of rainfall thresholds and the prediction of precipitation, respectively, to be used for landslide early warning purposes at the Bogowonto catchment, Central Java, Indonesia. A landslide inventory of 218 landslides for the period of 2003–2016 was compiled, and rainfall data were retrieved for the landslide locations, as given by 6 ground stations, TRMM, and ERA-Interim data. First, rainfall data from the three different sources was compared in terms of correlation and extreme precipitation indices. Second, a procedure for the calculation of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence was followed consisting of four steps: i) the TRMM-based rainfall data was reconstructed for selected dates and locations characterized by landslide occurrence and non-occurrence; ii) the antecedent daily rainfall was calculated for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days for the selected dates and locations; iii) two-parameter daily rainfall-antecedent rainfall thresholds were calculated for the aforementioned dates; after analysis of the curves the optimum number of antecedent rainfall days was selected; and (iv) empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence were determined. The procedure was repeated for the entire landslide dataset, differentiating between forested and built-up areas, and between landslide occurrence in four temporal periods, in relation to the monsoon. The results indicated that TRMM performs well for the detection of very heavy precipitation and can be used to indicate the extreme rainfall events that trigger landslides. On the contrary, as ERA-Interim failed to detect those events, its applicability for LEWS remains limited. The 15-day antecedent rainfall was indicated to mostly affect the landslide occurrence in the area. The rainfall thresholds vary for forested and built-up areas, as well as for the beginning, middle and end of the rainy season.  相似文献   

蝗虫遥感监测预警研究现状与展望   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

黄文江  董莹莹  赵龙龙  耿芸  阮超  张弼尧  孙忠祥  张寒苏  叶回春  王昆 《遥感学报》2020,24(10):1270-1279

气候变化背景下全球蝗灾日益肆虐，为支撑虫害及时精准防控，迫切需要开展大面积蝗虫动态监测预警研究。本文从蝗虫生境遥感监测、蝗虫发生动态遥感预警，以及蝗灾遥感损失评估3个方面介绍了当前研究现状，并指出当前存在的问题主要包括3个方面：蝗虫监测预警的时空分辨率较粗，无法精准定位虫害热点发生区和重点危害区；遥感虫害响应机制与虫害生物学扩散模型耦合度较低，导致模型时空普适性较差；缺乏高时空精度的虫害监测预警空间信息服务产品。因此，当前急需发展面向全球、洲际、全国、区域的多尺度、长时序、高精度虫害精准监测预警平台。通过建立时空精细尺度的虫害监测预警指标体系，研制遥感机制与虫害生物学机理深度耦合的高精度预测预报模型，发布多尺度高时频的虫害监测预警空间信息产品和服务，以实现海量数据的自动入库和智能存储、多层次模型的快速调用和高性能计算、虫害测报产品的在线生产和可视化服务。建立从数据到模型到产品服务的全链路，从而切实提升全球应对重大迁飞性虫害的智能化水平，为保障粮食安全、维护区域稳定和可持续发展提供科技支撑。  相似文献   

Constraints on variations of mp/me based on UVES observations of H2     

M. Wendt 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2014,335(1):106-112

This article summarizes the latest results on the proton‐to‐electron mass ratio μ derived from H₂ observations at high redshift in the light of possible variations of fundamental physical constants. The focus lies on UVES observations of the past years as enormous progress was achieved since the first positive results on Δμ /μ were published. With the better understanding of systematics, dedicated observation runs, and numerous approaches to improve wavelength calibration accuracy, all current findings are in reasonable good agreement with no variation and provide an upper limit of Δμ /μ < 1 × 10^–5 for the redshift range of 2 < z < 3. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

New spectroscopic and polarimetric observations of the A0 supergiant HD 92207     

S. Hubrig  A. F. Kholtygin  M. Schller  R. I. Anderson  S. Saesen  J. F. Gonzlez  I. Ilyin  M. Briquet 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2015,336(2):168-177

Our recent search for the presence of a magnetic field in the bright early A‐type supergiant HD 92207 using FORS 2 in spectropolarimetric mode revealed the presence of a longitudinal magnetic field of the order of a few hundred Gauss. However, the definite confirmation of the magnetic nature of this object remained pending due to the detection of shortterm spectral variability probably affecting the position of line profiles in left‐ and right‐hand polarized spectra. We present new magnetic field measurements of HD 92207 obtained on three different epochs in 2013 and 2014 using FORS 2 in spectropolarimetric mode. A 3σ detection of the mean longitudinal magnetic field using the entire spectrum, 〈B_z〉_all = 104 ± 34 G, was achieved in observations obtained in 2014 January. At this epoch, the position of the spectral lines appeared stable. Our analysis of spectral line shapes recorded in opposite circularly polarized light, i.e. in light with opposite sense of rotation, reveals that line profiles in the light polarized in a certain direction appear slightly split. The mechanism causing such a behaviour in the circularly polarized light is currently unknown. Trying to settle the issue of short‐term variability, we searched for changes in the spectral line profiles on a time scale of 8–10 min using HARPS polarimetric spectra and on a time scale of 3–4 min using time series obtained with the CORALIE spectrograph. No significant variability was detected on these time scales during the epochs studied. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Holocene river and slope activity in the Visoko Basin,Bosnia‐Herzegovina – climate and land‐use effects     

S. DREIBRODT  C. LUBOS  R. HOFMANN  N. MÜLLER‐SCHEEßEL  I. RICHLING  O. NELLE  M. FUCHS  K. RASSMANN  Z. KUJUNDŽIĆ‐VEJZAGIĆ  H.‐R. BORK  J. MÜLLER 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(6):559-570

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Eemian and Early Weichselian environments in southern Sweden: a multi‐proxy study of till‐covered organic deposits from the Småland peneplain     

GEOFFREY LEMDAHL  ANNA BROSTRÖM  LARS HEDENÄS  KRISTINA ARVIDSSON  SOFIA HOLMGREN  MARIE‐JOSÉ GAILLARD  PER MÖLLER 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(7):705-719

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Tsunami-like solitary waves impinging and overtopping an impermeable seawall: Experiment and RANS modeling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Shih-Chun Hsiao  Ting-Chieh Lin 《Coastal Engineering》2010

This study investigates tsunami-like solitary waves impinging and overtopping an impermeable trapezoidal seawall on a 1:20 sloping beach. New laboratory experiments are performed for describing three typical cases: a turbulent bore rushes inland and subsequently impacts and overtops the seawall (Type 1); a wave directly collapses on the seawall and then generates overtopping flow (Type 2); and, a wave straightforwardly overtops the seawall crown and collapses behind the seawall (Type 3). A two-dimensional volume of fluid (VOF) type model called the COBRAS (COrnell BReaking And Structure) model, which is based on the Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations and the k–ε turbulence closure solver, is validated by experimental data and then applied to investigate wave dynamics for which laboratory data are unavailable. Additionally, a set of numerical experiments is conducted to examine the dynamic wave acting force due to waves impacting the seawall. Effects of wave nonlinearity and freeboard are elucidated. Special attention is given to a distinct vortex evolutionary behavior behind the seawall, in which the dynamic properties of entrapped air-bubbles are briefly addressed experimentally and numerically.  相似文献   

Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast     

Chanchai Srisutam  Jean-Frank Wagner 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.  相似文献   

North Atlantic climate impact on early late‐glacial climate oscillations in the south‐eastern Alps inferred from a multi‐proxy lake sediment record     

Roland Schmidt  Kaarina Weckström  Stefan Lauterbach  Richard Tessadri  Kerstin Huber 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):40-50

High‐resolution multi‐proxy analyses of a sediment core section from Lake Jeserzersee (Saissersee) in the piedmont lobe of the Würmian Drau glacier (Carinthia, Austria) reveal pronounced climatic oscillations during the early late glacial (ca. 18.5–16.0k cal a BP). Diatom‐inferred epilimnetic summer water temperatures show a close correspondence with temperature reconstructions from the adjacent Lake Längsee record and, on a hemispheric scale, with fluctuations of ice‐rafted debris in the North Atlantic. This suggests that North Atlantic climate triggered summer climate variability in the Alps during the early late glacial. The expansion of pine (mainly dwarf pine) between ca. 18.5 and 18.1k cal a BP indicates warming during the so‐called ‘Längsee oscillation’. The subsequent stepwise climate deterioration between ca. 18.1 and 17.6k cal a BP culminated in a tripartite cold period between ca. 17.6 and 16.9k cal a BP with diatom‐inferred summer water temperatures 8.5–10 °C below modern values and a shift from wet to dry conditions. This period probably coincides with a major Alpine glacier advance termed the Gschnitz stadial. A warmer interval between ca. 16.9 and 16.4k cal a BP separates this cold phase from a second, shorter and less pronounced cold phase between ca. 16.4 and 16.0k cal a BP, which is thought to correlate with the Clavadel/Senders glacier advance in the Alps. The following temperature increase, coupled with wet (probably snow‐rich) conditions, caused the expansion of birch during the transition period to the late glacial interstadial. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

初夏至盛夏东亚副热带西风急流变化与江淮出梅的关系          下载免费PDF全文

董丽娜  郭品文  张福颖   《大气科学学报》2010,33(1):74-81

利用1961—2005年逐候资料对东亚副热带西风急流初夏至盛夏变化与江淮出梅的关系进行了分析。结果表明,多年平均7月初夏至盛夏急流中心由西太平洋地区西跳至青藏高原的同时我国东部地区急流北跳至37.5°N以北,比梅雨结束早1候;急流北跳使得我国东部高空强辐散中心北移至华北地区,江淮地区上空辐散显著减弱,上升运动减弱,从而使得江淮梅雨结束,雨带北移;而急流中心的西跳仅使得我国东部地区高空辐散中心减弱,降水减弱,有利于雨带北移。我国东部急流北跳与江淮地区梅雨结束时间显著正相关,在北跳偏早(晚)年份梅雨结束早(晚),长江中下游地区降水偏少(多),而急流中心西跳早晚对我国华北北部地区和淮河附近地区降水有较大影响。可见,我国东部急流北跳与梅雨结束关系密切,可作为梅雨结束的先期信号。  相似文献